Estimated delivery 3-12 business days
Format Hardcover
Condition Brand New
Description A modified non-linear Monte Carlo methodology is developed to dramatically increase the accuracy of contingency development in complex project. It is achieved through counting of non-linear risk interactions in complex projects consistently that have been completely missed out by the traditional methods.
Project practitioners and decision makers complain that both parametric and Monte Carlo methods fail to produce accurate project duration and cost contingencies in majority of cases. Apparently, the referred methods have unacceptably high systematic errors as they miss out critically important components of project risk exposure. In the case of complex projects overlooked are the components associated with structural and delivery Risk Quantification in Complex Projects: Non-linear Monte Carlo and System Dynamics Methodologies zeroes in on most crucial but systematically overlooked characteristics of complex projects. Anymismatches between two fundamental interacting subsystems - a project structure subsystem and a project delivery subsystem - result in non-linear interactions of project risks. Three kinds of the interactions are distinguished - internal risk amplifications stemming from long-term ('chronic') project system issues, knock-on interactions, and risk of interacting risks compose dynamic risk patterns supported by a project system. A methodology tofactor the patterns into Monte Carlo modelling referred to as non-linear Monte Carlo schedule and cost risk analysis (N-SCRA) is developed and demonstrated. It is capable to forecast project outcomes withhigh accuracy even in the case of most complex and difficult projects including notorious projects-outliers: it has a much lower systematic power of project system dynamics is uncovered. It can be adopted as an accurate risk quantification methodology in complex projects. Results produced by the system dynamics and the non-linear Monte Carlo methodologies are built Monte Carlo and system dynamics models are available onthe book's companion website.
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