Insolation and climate : Milutin
Milanković and the mathematical theory of climate changes
by Aleksandar Petrović
Publisher : Federal Hydrometeorological
Institute of the FR Yugoslavia , Belgrade 2002
bilingual : text in serbain ( cyrillic
letter ) and english language
paperback , size 22,5 x 31 cm , illustrated , 34 pages
ISBN - 86-83941-03-5
COBISS.SR-ID - 181201415
FOREWORD
Climate as a global interdependence of
ocean, soil and atmosphere influences all aspects of life. Today climate change
becomes universal issue overcoming all national borders and political differences.
The global climate change issue has been in the focus for the past two
ceniuries and particularly for the past several decades. But the progress in
the climate change problem would not have been possible without joint efforts
of many scientists. The understanding and assessment of the Earth's climate
variability comprise a issue which is complex, so large and so interlinked that
it requires comprehensive, interdisciplinary, secular theory which may offer a
reliable general approach to this problem. To be able to detect, predict and assess
climate changes a long-term theoreticalmodel
is needed.
For this kind of climate changes consideration,
it is important not to observe the Earth separately, but to perceive its
essential connection with the cosmic environment. Astronomic theory of climate
changes of Milutin Milanković has such fruitful approach. As a valuable part of
the European tradition of celestial mechanics and the Earth sciences, his
theory opened new frontiers for climate sciences, development of the numerical
climate models to better analyze, observe and predict climate and weather.
Because of that, it is one of the pillars of the climate issue.
This book indicates that a prudent way to
deal with climate change leads through further research and implementing of
Milanović's basic ideas and his mathematical theory of climate change.
Milanković's „Canon of Insolation" can be further used in a specific way
for the improvement of our knowledge and the completion of climate monitoring
on various time scales. In the secular framework of Milanković's theory major
interactive processes in the Earth's climate system (atmosphere, oceans, land
surface, ice and snow cover) could be mathematically quantified and understood
in the wider astronomical context. Such an approach can strongly promote
productive research related to climate processes being affected by the
astronomical forcing. It contains powerful methodological tools to encompass
and strengthen particular capabilities of climate global change sciences. On
the basis of Milanković's method it can be performed general climate analysis,
analysis of climate trends, assessment of climate extremes; it can ensure a
more balanced approaches of particular climate related issues and contribute in
research to develop more efficient methodologies for analysis of present
climate.
This publication is the brief, but complete
survey of the work of Milutin Milanković and I am
convinced that it will make it clear that
Milanković's work is not only interesting for the history of science, but still
is the fundamental and accurate methodological tool for the forecasting of
natural climate changes and reliable assessment of its present variations.
Momčilo Zivković
Director of Federal Hydrometeorological
Institute
Osunčavanje i klima : Milutin Milanković
i matematička teorija promena klime
Aleksandar Petrović
Izdavač : Savezni hidrometeorološki zavod ,
Beograd 2002