The Operation Rising Lion Operation Rising Lion, also called Operation Nation of Lions, was a series of airstrikes carried out by Israel against sites and personnel linked to the Iranian nuclear program in June 2025. On 12 June 2025, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) found Iran to have breached its non-proliferation obligations for the first time in 20 years, as Iran had built a stockpile of enriched uranium that could be used to make reactor fuel and nuclear weapons. That same day, American president Donald Trump warned that a "massive conflict" could break out in the Middle East over the issue of Iran's nuclear program, saying that, while he had held Israel back from attacking Iran's nuclear processing facilities, the United States would consider military strikes if US-Iran nuclear talks failed to curb Iran's ability to enrich uranium. Early on the morning of 13 June 2025, the Israeli Air Force launched a series of preemptive strikes against Iran's nuclear program and other military targets. Dozens of strikes were carried out across the country, targeting long-range missiles and nuclear sites such as Natanz. Mossad sabotaged Iran's air defense systems and missile infrastructure ahead of the attack. Explosions rocked military bases and in neighborhoods housing senior commanders; the IRGC headquarters was also struck. The IDF claimed to have killed Iranian chief of staff Mohammad Bagheri, IRGC commander Hossein Salami, senior commander Gholam Ali Rashid, and nuclear scientists Fereydoon Abbasi and Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi, while Ali Khamenei's advisor Ali Shamkhani was critically wounded and later died from his injuries. New waves of strikes would occur in the afternoon as Israel bombed the Tabriz Airport, Shiraz, and the Natanz nuclear site. On 14 June, the Israelis launched a new wave of attacks against Tehran and gas fields, and 15 June saw Israel strike the Ministry of Justice in Tehran, military bases in Shiraz, and the Iranian foreign ministry. Defense Minister Israel Katz declared a state of emergency ahead of expected Iranian retaliation, with US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff warning the US Congress that Iran could retaliate with a mass-casualty attack. Iran's initial response was to launch more than 100 Shahed drones at Israel, but the Royal Jordanian Air Force and Israeli Air Force shot them down, enabling the lifting of the shelter-in-place order in Israel. Operation Rising Lion represents a significant moment in the ongoing confrontation between Israel and Iran. The consequences wrought by Iran’s persistent destabilization of the region through proxy groups for years and insistence on advancing their nuclear program – despite repeated warnings from the United States and Israel – are already severe. Although it is early, there are three elements of Rising Lion to pay close attention to: (1) how escalation progresses and where it may lead, (2) what Israel’s true strategic objectives are given the means it has already committed and the risk it appears willing to assume, and (3) how the logic of targeting can shape an adversary’s decision-making. Each of these dynamics may influence not only the outcome of this conflagration but the possibility for a better peace when the fighting stops. Operation Rising Lion is unfolding at a moment of profound strategic consequence. This analysis has highlighted three essential elements that will shape the outcome of the campaign and its broader implications. First, while Iran’s ability to escalate is constrained, the regime may respond in unpredictable ways – especially if it feels cornered. Second, Israel’s objectives may extend beyond destroying Iran’s nuclear program; overwhelming operational success or shifting political conditions brought on by that success could push its aims toward regime change. Third, although targeting is not a substitute for strategy, it can generate paralyzing effects that my force Iran to recalculate. Warden’s Five Rings concept provides a useful construct for examining this dynamic of the conflict. These three dynamics do not exist in isolation. As escalatory actions narrow political options, objectives may expand. Expanded objectives may alter the logic and scale of targeting – accelerating the pace and scope of the conflict. In pre-dawn strikes termed Operation Rising Lion, dozens of Israeli jets launched a sweeping aerial assault across Iranian territory on Friday, hitting multiple high-value nuclear and military targets. Chief among them was Iran's principal uranium enrichment site at Natanz, where black smoke was seen billowing into the air hours after the first wave of airstrikes. In a sudden escalation of hostilities between the two countries, Iranian state television later confirmed the death of Major General Hossein Salami, chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), in what it called "a direct assassination by Zionist forces." He had served as the public face of Iran's military strategy and was seen as the strategist of its proxy warfare policy, particularly in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. Iranian state television further reported the deaths of another senior IRGC commander, whose name has not been released, and two prominent nuclear scientists linked to Iran's uranium enrichment programme. The Iranian government has declared a state of national mourning. Strike On Iran's Nuclear Core The Israeli Air Force (IAF) hit multiple sensitive locations across Iran. Chief among these was the sprawling Natanz complex, spread across roughly 100,000 square metres in Isfahan province and partially buried beneath the desert plains of central Iran. Natanz is home to thousands of centrifuges and has long been at the centre of Western and Israeli concerns about Iran's nuclear ambitions. While the extent of the damage at Natanz remains unclear, early images broadcast briefly by Iranian state media and dozens of open-source intelligence reports showed fires near the above-ground Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant (PFEP). The below-ground Fuel Enrichment Plant (FEP), which is three stories deep, is considered more resistant to conventional airstrikes. Yet analysts say even limited surface damage could disrupt operations in Iran's most fortified nuclear installation. This marks the most direct Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear infrastructure since the Stuxnet cyberattack over a decade ago.

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