Dear reader,
Thank you for visiting this auction, I am sure you will find the information that follows below helpful in terms of helping you decide if the item advertised here is for you or not.
What is on offer here is a set of horse racing betting strategies, separated in 2 categories:
1. Betting/trading in-play on UK Saturday horse races.
2. Betting on USA horse races.
The winning bidder will receive:
1. Two separate manuals, one for the UK Saturday in-play racing, and one for the US racing.
2. 2 Excel files, containing data that is relevant to the information in both the manuals.
3. A free gift – a feature-rich Excel betting calculator (more details on this below).
Requirements (please read these carefully before buying):
• Fully functional Betfair account, all the strategies involve betting/trading on Betfair
• Fast and reliable internet connection, and a decent specification fast PC with as much screen real estate as possible
• Betfair “one click” software, it is impossible to use the Betfair website for the in-play strategies. More on this will follow below.
• Time. All the strategies involve being in front of the PC screen and assessing the information from the live markets. For the in-play betting/trading this means around 4 hours on the Saturday afternoons, for the USA betting can be as little or as much as it is convenient
• Common sense, patience and disciplined structured approach. Previous betting/Betfair experience will be a bonus but is not a must.
• To view the spreadsheet files you will need Excel, to use the free gift – the betting calculator, you also need Excel.
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Now here is the detailed description, for those of you that have read the summary above and want to know more.
Let’s start with the in-play manual. Why in-play, why Saturday only, why UK horse racing only?
The two key words here are volume and volatility. There are much more people involved on Saturdays than any other weekday, this provides higher than average volumes of money matched on Betfair, with UK racing attracting the highest volumes. Orders that will never get matched on a weekday can get gobbled up quickly on a Saturday. The competitive nature of the sport, the overreaction of the punters (the Saturday crowd) all contribute to the volatility of those markets with some really spectacular fluctuations of the prices being offered in-play.
The manual contains 12 different in-play strategies, one of which was expanded to contain 4 different options (subcategories) within it. There is no general “introductory” type information; such can always be looked up online. What is included though, in a separate file, is a sample of past historical data that can be used as a reference guide. The data is for UK Saturday horse racing meetings only, includes 2369 races (from 07-01-2012 to 27-04-2013), and there are various worksheets in the Excel file in which the data is sorted using different criteria. I will be sharing with you some observations and comments that are the result of me spending significant amount of time in the markets and picking up on some very interesting trends and patterns. With some practise and “live markets” experience you can start seeing things from a different angle, and hopefully some positive and consistent results will come your way. In the manual I am explaining the logic behind each one of the strategies, of course there are screenshots with genuine market examples that will help you put the logic into context. You will need however to invest time and effort in understanding and applying the strategies, this is not a case of “press a button and I am done” information. The manual will be most appreciated by analytical and patient people that are not afraid to put in the “hours”.
I should mention some important technical stuff here. Fast internet connection is mandatory, for obvious reasons, and has to be reliable too so that one doesn’t end up being disconnected in the middle of a trade or bet. Backup connection could be helpful, but in many instances if the main connection fails there will be no time to make use of a backup one, so please take this into consideration. Regarding the computer, although there are no special requirements, should be as fast and as responsive as possible, and a bigger screen is a definite advantage as will help you see more things at the same time.
And finally – a Betfair software is mandatory, we need to have multiple price ladders open with fastest refresh rates possible and full market depth so that we can see what is going on and react accordingly. We will submit any bets with a single mouse click on the price ladders or by using some of the software’s automation options, if such are available. To mention a few of the Betfair software that can be used – Bet Angel, AGT Pro (Geek’s Toy), Gruss Betting Assistant, Bet Trader Evolution, FairBot, Advanced Cymatic Trader etc. The Cymatic Trader is completely free to use (at the time of writing), and supports multiple ladders, however lacks certain functionality and is not the best option. Alas all the other ones are not free, but they all have free trials so one can have a look without paying a penny. The best choice in terms of price and functionality is without a doubt the AGT Pro software (14 day free trial, £20 for a 3 month licence thereafter).
You don’t need live pictures (they are delayed anyway), as you will be looking at the live price movements on the price ladders. Betfair offer live video for the horse racing with very short delays, however it will put strain on your connection (unless you use a separate one) and you need all the speed/bandwidth for refreshing the price data, you can use a TV feed but it is delayed (unless you are in a trading room with SIS or Turf TV) and also the TV could turn out to be a distraction. A compromise is a live online radio commentary (about 2 second delay, but almost unnoticeable effect on the connection speed), a number of racing online radio stations are available. Once you read the manual you can decide for yourself which option will suit you best.
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Now for the second manual, the USA horse racing betting. My attitude has always been “keep an open and unprejudiced mind” and this has enabled me to use a logical and analytical approach when assessing any strategy, idea or set of statistical data. As I operate in UK time, American racing was something that I could get involved in on top of everything else, the simple reason being that the time difference allows for that. So anyone that is busy during the day, and lives in any European time zone, will find that US racing can fit very nicely in his schedule, as it starts in the evening (18.00 or so, depending on where you live and what day of the week it is) and runs as late as after midnight, so anywhere in that timeframe one can get involved, provided he has some time to spare. Can be any day of the week, can be as little as one race per day etc., very flexible indeed. One has to be in front of the PC screen and actively assess different bits of information to be able to arrive at an informed decision. The manual will explain everything in detail.
I would like to point out very clearly that the manual will teach you how to be able in a matter of no more than 4-5 minutes (sometimes even less) to assess if a horse becomes a betting proposition. As you will see, there will be 3 different types of selections: strong favourites to back, weak favourites to lay (always the shortest priced), and “value” overpriced selections to back, both the win and the place markets are used.
There is an Excel data file that accompanies the manual, containing some race results that are taken from the Timeform website. For the US racing you can use the Betfair website only, so a Betfair software is not a requirement, I will however recommend using one.
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Now below follow quite a few detailed clarifications that can serve as answers to potential questions that one could ask about the item.
Why there are 2 different manuals? Why didn’t you separate the UK in-play information from the US one (and possibly have 2 separate items rather than one)?
The reason for this is that both the manuals have something in common, and that is the information in them can be applied in “out of office” hours. This makes the item advertised here perfect for people that are busy during the day. As already mentioned, the UK in-play information will be used on Saturday afternoons, and the US racing information - in the evenings (for European time zone users), and this should suit the average full time working person who does the “9 to 5” grind.
Why haven’t you simply made a video series rather than producing manuals with screenshots?
That is not an oversight on my behalf, screenshots are a much higher resolution and it is easier to both see and highlight details there, also they are easier to incorporate in written information and much lighter to upload/download/email. I can promise you the lack of video will not affect you at all, you will receive everything in a very clear, ordered and understandable way.
How and why was the item priced the way it is and is the price a fair one?
This is something that I approach very carefully, and take into consideration the following factors: the amount of effort and time that has been invested in creating the product, the skill and the expertise involved, the profit potential of course, and an objective comparison to other similar products in the market. The old saying that you get what you pay for applies to information products as well, so there is no way the product would have been priced same as those few pages long ebooks which are advertised with pictures of expensive cars and scantily clad ladies, we have all seen those and we know exactly how much they are worth…
And of course it has never been safer to buy online now, as there are all sorts of buyer protection procedures in place, so much like a department store one can always demand a refund if the quality does not match the description. I can assure you that in this case the quality does match the description. I offer not only a money back guarantee (everyone else does too by default, so nothing unique here), but I also offer a truly exceptional customer service and post-sales support. Actually I have quite a few past customers that I regularly correspond with; I made some interesting acquaintances by being an Ebay seller. Feedback scores and previous customers’ comments are there for everyone to see, and any questions have always been and will always be answered by me in detail, in as clear and honest way as possible.
Why are you selling this?
This is a question people very often ask. The number one reason behind any sale is to make a profit, simple as that. I just hate it when sellers try to over-complicate the issue and beat round the bush. People tend to wonder doesn't selling interfere with “liquidity”, surely if “X” number of people start using the same strategies the value will disappear and the odds available will drop, and so on and so forth… So somehow people manage to assume by default that all betting-related information products are useless (surely if it is something good no one will ever sell it, right?), and at the same time they are worried that if they buy it and it turns out to be good, it might not be good for long as all the new buyers will cause the market to react accordingly and correct any edge or advantage of any strategy. Well, such questions and fears might not be completely unfounded, but again it all comes down to the good old numbers and probabilities rather than to any subjective thoughts or irrational fears. How many people will it take to use exactly the same strategy at exactly the same time to have an effect on any Betfair market? The answer is: much more than will buy and use any particular system/strategy, simple as that. And if the answer to the simple question “will sharing/selling this information will have a negative effect on me or my activities” is “no”, then why wouldn't one sell/share it?
Does this involve backing or laying, what is the strike rate and how much money can one make?
The UK in-play strategies involve trading, backing, laying, and dutching. The US betting involves backing, laying, place backing, place laying and dutching. One does not have to use everything, but rather will have to choose according to his own style, risk tolerance etc.
As for strike rates and profitability, remember that we are talking about a number of different strategies, and all of those require some sort of assessment/judgement, there are no purely “mechanical” ones, so there will be variations from one person to the next.
And by the way the only way to claim anything in this regard is to have an independent third party review; otherwise by default any claims should be considered exaggerated for the purposes of advertising, hence no claims will be made here at all.
Do I need to spend lots of time studying form?
No. No form study is required at all. The UK in-play information requires one to monitor the live markets, wait for signals and act accordingly, the US information relies on some data that is assessed very quickly (less than 5 minutes on average per race, so is done in real time just before the race starts).
The form factor is actually incorporated in the market activity anyway so we sort of use “indirect form” if there is such thing. If you are a form lover, the product advertised here can be a very nice addition to your current activities.
I have recently been asked the following question:
“How would you respond to the argument that all information - public and private - is reflected in the Betfair prices, and that the extreme accuracy of the markets means that they cannot be beaten long-term?”
Here is what I replied:
“Theoretically markets should be completely effective in the long run, and the net result of any betting activity should be a slight loss (breaking even because of the market accuracy and when you deduct charges and commissions the small net loss will be incurred). That would be true for Betfair, and will be worse with the bookies where the overround is so huge. However anyone that has actually sat in front of the PC screen with one-click Betfair software running and a few price ladders open that refresh at 5 times per second (I do this every day), will realize the simple truth (which makes this game so incredibly addictive) that opportunities do and always will exist, and the market will be spot on at one point, but distorted at another, as it is volatile, and that is what creates the opportunities. Now fair enough there are slow markets that will just not move at all (for example the "at least one goal" market in high profile soccer games) and you can hardly do anything there, but there are the volatile ones which one can get involved in. For example greyhound racing on Betfair, the fluctuations of the prices are sometimes downright ridiculous, you have to actually see them to believe it is possible, how can a dog that has a tissue price of 3.5 and a has quite a few positives in the form trade at odds ranging from 4.5 to 9.00 ? And goes on to win...Is this market effective? I regularly see even bigger discrepancies... And in horse racing, for example, there are so many big traders/players that push the prices up and down like there is no tomorrow (netting some decent profits by trading the movements, which obviously is completely artificial and speculative but happens regularly nonetheless on an hourly basis), so is such market effective? At some point it is, but it is not glued to that point, is it? And how about those “bandwagon” type scenarios, where a horse’s odds shorten (or lengthen) very dramatically just because everyone wants to be on once the trend develops, and follows blindly the “herd” just to find himself fall off a cliff minutes later (along with the rest of the “herd mentality” crew that joined the bandwagon). And I haven't even mentioned the racing in-play insanity, where horses traded at odds of 1000 win, and others traded at 1.01 lose, and this happens week in and week out. And of course the "fat fingers" stories, people that made blatant errors (be it due to human error or through the misuse of bots or software) and piled huge money on completely the wrong prices, and someone lucky happened to be there and then with a big enough bank to hoover up the open bet, trade out a bit later and make in a few seconds what he makes in a few weeks or even months. So I really would struggle to define the term effective market”.
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Next, something I would really like to underline is the fact that all the information in both the manuals and the stats and the observations and comments that are shared provide a base that can be expanded upon. Call it further development, fine tuning, adjustment to particular circumstances, or whatever name you want to give it, but the thing is whoever wants to can use the information in more than one way. Or some of the underlying principles can be used for developing similar other strategies, bottom line is the information is logical and has practical value.
Finally, there is a free gift included in the package, an Excel betting calculator that was sold as a separate item and left quite a few users absolutely overwhelmed by the many features and the ease of use. I’ve had so many positive comments about it that I just have to include it as a must have tool for any betting person. It will help you with numerous types of calculations, choosing a staking plan, record keeping, dutching, arbing, odds conversion etc. It is completely unique, requires Excel to work (any version), macros have to be enabled to use the full functionality. You can have a look at all the features’ screenshots by using this link: https://sites.google.com/site/uk05032013/calculator. This used to be my “flagship” item and now you can get it as a free bonus, it is a way for me to say “thank you for trusting me and becoming a customer”.
Thank you for visiting my auction, and please do not hesitate to contact me in case you want to ask any questions, I am available any time and will be more than happy to help.